Severo Ciclón Tropical FUNA (H - cat. 3) - Pacífico Sur, FIJI.

[Gale]

Vaya tamaño que tiene esta, por ahora, tormenta tropica que en la escala australiana ya tiene la categoría 1.



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 16/1400 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 10F FUNA CENTRE [987HPA] CAT 1 NEAR 14.8S 165.7E AT
161200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING AND MOVING
EAST AT 10 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS CLOSE
TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 55 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.

ORGANISATION STEADILY INCREASING. PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTRE NOW UNER
DEEP AND COOLING CONVECTION. SPIRAL BANDS CONSOLIDATING AND WRAPPING
TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND DEVELOPING TO EAST AND
SOUTH. CYCLONE LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION AND MINIMAL SHEAR. SHEAR
[CIMSS] DECREASING OVER SYSTEM AND ALONG FORECAST TRACK. EASTWARD
STEERING INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO NORTH. DVORAK BASED ON 0.7
WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT3.0. PAT=MET=3.0, THUS
T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION ON EAST THEN SOUTHEAST TRACK.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC NEAR 15.0S 168.0E MOV E 11KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC NEAR 15.4S 170.1E MOV ESE
10KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC NEAR 16.4S 172.0E MOV SE 11KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC NEAR 17.9S 173.0E MOV SSE 10KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC FUNA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 162030 UTC.

© 1995 - 2007 Fiji Meteorological Service

Según estas previsiones, puede convertirse en un gran bicho !! Ojo, que este puede ser un bonito seguimiento !! :<<O

[AngelAldair94]

Según el NAVY tiene 55 kts - 982 mb

[deltaforce]

 :O*

[AngelAldair94]

Se dirige hacia el Este

[Gale]

Ha seguido intensificándose. Ahora alcanza la categoría 2 en la escala Australiana, aunque mantiene el estatus de tormenta tropical... En menos de 24 horas probablemente tengamos delante de nuestros ojos un categoría 1 en la escala de Saffir Simpson, o categoría 3 en la escala Australiana.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 16/2021 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 10F FUNA CENTRE [978HPA] CAT 2 NEAR 15.1S 166.5E AT
161800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING AND MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 50
KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, AND OVER
33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.

ORGANISATION STEADILY INCREASING. CENTRE NOW UNDER DEEP AND COOLING
CONVECTION. SPIRAL BANDS CONSOLIDATING AND WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND
LLCC. CYCLONE LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION AND MINIMAL SHEAR. SHEAR
[CIMSS] DECREASING OVER SYSTEM AND ALONG FORECAST TRACK.
EAST-SOUTHEAST STEERING INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVELS. DVORAK BASED ON 0.6
WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL IN CMG, YIELDING A DT3.5. PAT=MET=3.5, THUS
T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION ON EAST-SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHEAST TRACK.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC NEAR 15.5S 168.7E MOV E 11KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC NEAR 16.4S 170.3E MOV ESE
8KT WITH 65KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC NEAR 17.7S 171.3E MOV SE 8KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC NEAR 19.1S 172.0E MOV SSE 8KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC FUNA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 170230 UTC.


© 1995 - 2007 Fiji Meteorological Service

[AngelAldair94]

Sus vientos han aumentado a 60 kts

[Gale]

Aún no, Angetotti... Se espera que alcance esa intensidad en las próximas horas.

Adjunto una imagen en modo visible del monstruo que se está gestando

Navy: FUNA, 55 KT, 982 mb.

[deltaforce]

Fiji Public Weather Bulletin

    http://www.met.gov.fj/index.php   

Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi
at 5:30am on Thursday the 17th of January 2008

Situation:

An active trough of low pressure remains slow moving over the group.
Associated cloud and rain bands continue to affect the group.

Forecast to midnight tonight for the Fiji group:

Rain, heavy at times and squally thunderstorms.
Flooding of low-lying areas, rivers and streams in areas of
persistent heavy falls.
Moderate south to southeast winds about south and southwestern parts
of the group. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh west to northwest winds,
gusty in thunderstorm squalls.
Moderate to rough seas. Moderate east to southeast swells.

Outlook for FRIDAY :

 Rain continuing. Winds becoming predominantly
northwesterlies.

For Navua / Suva / Nausori :

Rain, heavy at times and few squally thunderstorms.
Outlook for FRIDAY : Rain continuing.

For Nadi / Lautoka / Ba :

Rain, heavy at times and few squally thunderstorms.
Outlook for FRIDAY : Rain continuing.

For Labasa :

Rain, heavy at times and squally thunderstorms.
Outlook for FRIDAY : Rain continuing.

For Savusavu :

Rain, heavy at times and squally thunderstorms.
Outlook for FRIDAY : Rain continuing.

For Rotuma :

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL WATERS OF ROTUMA.

Over open waters:

 West to northwest winds 20 to 25 knots, with gust
up to 30 knots in thunderstorm squalls.

Over land:

Moderate west to northwest winds, fresh and gusty at
times.
Further rain, heavy at times and a few squally thunderstorms.
Rough seas. Very rough in thunderstorm squalls.
Poor visibility in areas of heavy rain and squally thunderstorms.

Outlook for FRIDAY : Rain and squally thunderstorm continuing.

[deltaforce]

 :O*

[AngelAldair94]

Ufff! es muy grande. A ver si evoluciona en huracan

[Gale]

El centro del ciclón está en una zona de buenísima cizalladura, con valores de solo 5 KT sobre éste.......... Pero a pesar de ello la estructura nubosa no termina de consolidarse.........

El Navy le da ya 65 KT y 974 mb, por lo que estaríamos hablando de un huracán de categoría 1 en la escala de Saffir Simpson.

HURRICANE WARNING 021 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 17/0707 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FUNA CENTRE [970HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15 DECIMAL 3
SOUTH 169 DECIMAL 5 EAST AT 170600 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 15.3 SOUTH 169.5 EAST AT 170600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS
WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 35 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 16.4S 171.0E AT 171800 UTC
AND NEAR 17.5S 172.0E AT 180600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 020.

© 1995 - 2007 Fiji Meteorological Service

No parece que se haya intensificado mucho desde el último aviso que leí anoche......... Sólo 2 milibares menos de presión. Puede que las masas de aire seco que hay por su flanco SW estén retrasando su fortalecimiento o haciendo que sea menor del esperado.

 

  UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 7.2.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :    2008JAN17    Time : 103000 UTC
      Lat :   15:47:17 S     Lon :  169:40:13 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.8 / 981.8mb/ 61.0kt

Lo que quiere decir que para el CIMSS está rozando la categoría 1 en la escala de Saffir Simpson. Mientras, para el Wunderground, ya ha adquirido tal categoría:

Time             Lat   Lon    Wind(mph)   Storm type

-------------------------------------------------------------
06 GMT 01/16/08  15.1S 164.6E    40       Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/16/08  14.8S 166.2E    65       Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/17/08  15.5S 169.0E    75       Category 1

Adjunto mapa de previsión de trayectoria según el servicio meteorológico de las FIJI:

[Gale]

Adjunto imagen de FUNA en modo vapor de agua y las posibles trayectorias que puede seguir según distintos modelos meteorológicos, entre ellos, el GFS:

[Gale]

Cada vez se le ve con mejor aspecto A ver si hay actualización de datos para saber la intensidad que tiene, aunque al no presentar ojo pienso que sigue manteniendo la categoría 1 en la escala de Saffir Simpson... Adjunto última imagen de vapor de agua, de las 15:30 UTC.

[AngelAldair94]

Ya se dirige hacia el sur

[Gale]

En la última hora, la potente convección que había en torno al centro de FUNA ha sufrido una fuerte intensificación, aumentando de tamaño y enfriándose sus topes superiores. Reforzamiento general del ciclón a la postre. Ya hay actualización del boletín de aviso del servicio meteorológico de FIJI:

HURRICANE WARNING 025 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 17/1915 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FUNA CENTRE [968HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 16 DECIMAL 6
SOUTH 170 DECIMAL 9 EAST AT 171800 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 16.6 SOUTH 170.9 EAST AT 171800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 18.2S 171.9E AT 180600 UTC
AND NEAR 19.4S 172.4E AT 181800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 023.

DEEP CONVECTION COOLING AND REORGANISING. COLD SPIRAL BAND TO EAST
CONSOLIDATING WHILE WRAPPING AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST, FAIR
TO SOUTH AND DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM STILL LIES IN A DIFFLUENT
REGION WITH MINIMAL SHEAR. CIMSS MAITAINS DECREASING SHEAR OVER
SYSTEM AND ALONG FORECAST TRACK. CYCLONE STEERED TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO NORTHEAST. DVORAK BASED ON 1.0 WRAP ON LOG10
SPIRAL GIVES DT3.5 PLUS DT0.5 FOR W BAND, YIELDING DT4.0. PAT AND MET
AGREE, THUS T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION ON EAST-SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHEAST TRACK.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC NEAR 16.8S 171.5E MOV SE 08KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC NEAR 17.9S 172.0E MOV SSE
06KT WITH 75KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC NEAR 18.9S 172.1E MOV S 10KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC NEAR 20.7S 172.1E MOV S 10KT WITH 95KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC FUNA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 172030 UTC.

© 1995 - 2007 Fiji Meteorological Service