Actualmente la cizalladura no es un problema excesivo para NADINE... Según CIMSS, de unos 15 KT sobre el centro. Más problemático es el aire seco, que es imposible saber cómo lidiará con él. La teoría dice que debe debilitarle... pero los modelos no indican excesivo debilitamiento, si alguno...

TACHÁN! NADINE se vuelve subtropical Y no se descarta que en unos días recupere el estatus de tropical....

BRUTAL NADINE, BRUTAAAAAAAAAAAAL!!!

000
WTNT44 KNHC 212036
TCDAT4

SUBTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 PM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

NADINE HAS UNDERGONE AN INTERESTING TRANSFORMATION DURING THE PAST
DAY OR SO.  WHILE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVERALL...A BAND OF
MODERATE CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
STORM.  AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS ALSO DEVELOPED CLOSE TO THE CENTER
OF NADINE...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH INTERACTIONS
THAT THE CYCLONE HAS HAD RECENTLY.  THE STORM HAS A LARGER-THAN-
AVERAGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND AN ASYMMETRIC WIND
DISTRIBUTION.  ALTHOUGH IT IS TEMPTING TO DECLARE NADINE
POST-TROPICAL WITH THE DECAYING CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO
FIT MOST OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...ALBEIT
FROM AN UNUSUAL WAY OF GETTING THERE.  THE BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS
TIME IS THAT NADINE HAS BECOME SUBTROPICAL...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A
SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
REMAINS 50 KT. 

NADINE IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KT.  THE CYCLONE
SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST AS IT IS STEERED BY
A TROUGH OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  AFTER THE
TROUGH MOVES AWAY...HOWEVER...VERY LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED IN A
COUPLE DAYS TIME AS NADINE IS CAUGHT IN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS.
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT TROUGH IN ABOUT 5
DAYS WILL FINALLY CAUSE THE STORM TO MOVE A BIT FASTER TO THE
NORTHEAST AND LOSE ANY REMAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERSTICS.  THE NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...GEFS...ECMWF...FIM...AND
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLES.  THIS RESULTS IN A MORE SOUTHWARD
TRACK EARLY ON...SMALL CHANGES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST...AND
AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT DAY 5. 

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CHALLENGING AND IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.
VERY COLD UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTING THE
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IN COMBINATION WITH MARGINAL SSTS...
ALTHOUGH THE WATERS SHOULD BE WARMING WITH TIME.  MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR A SLIGHTLY WEAKER
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR NADINE...WHICH COULD
FACILITATE A TRANSITION BACK TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE THE SYSTEM
IS OVER MARGINAL SSTS.  IT WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT
DECAYED INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 33.0N  27.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 31.6N  26.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 30.6N  25.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 30.5N  25.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 30.8N  24.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 31.7N  25.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 32.5N  24.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 32.5N  21.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Que espera mas larga!    Pase lo que pase Nadine la vamos a recordar mucho tiempo por el juego que nos está dando 

Todos los canarios, y los compañeros de la peninsula con el ojo puesto en esta "Señorita"

Que juego esta dando. LA "Señorita" NADINE.

Dar mis felicidades a los compañeros de la península excelente seguimiento. 

Conclusion ninguna. Menuda expectacion, Ultimo mapa del NHC

Vaya juego nos está dando...
Y vaya forma que ha cogido!!! Se está alargando.
Su forma me recuerda a la de Vince.
Que larga se me va a hacer la semana.

Con esas temperaturas de las aguas,es mas factible que Nadine se situe en esa zona tal y como algun modelo predice o la otra posibilidad y para mi nada descabellada es rumbo hacia el estrecho,lo que no logro a entender es ese rumbo hacia el Noroeste.

NADINE fue declarado ciclón post-tropical durante la madrugada, debido a la falta de convección. No obstante, mantiene núcleo cálido y una vigorosa circulación, por lo que siguen valorándolo como si fuera una depresión todavía, y supongo que mantendrán emitiendo productos aún. Además, se observa como posible o incluso probable que se regenere pronto, al dirigirse hacia aguas más cálidas...

Y por enésima vez, no saben si dará la vuelta hacia aguas abiertas del Atlántico, o si seguirá acercándose a Canarias - Madeira - Península

Desde luego, el cambio que ha dado el GFS en su salida de las 00 UTC, es demoledor, dejándonos sin NADINE ... Seguiremos observando.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 220237
TCDAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

WHILE NADINE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A WARM CORE AND A VIGOROUS
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FOR THE PAST 15 HOURS OR SO.  WHAT
CONVECTION THAT CURRENTLY REMAINS IS IN POORLY-DEFINED BANDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
REALLY FIT THE DEFINITION OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND SO IT IS
DECLARED TO BE POST-TROPICAL.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50
KT DUE TO A LACK OF DATA NEAR THE CENTER...BUT THIS COULD BE A
LITTLE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 165/11.  NADINE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NORTHEAST.  A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THERE ARE TWO FUTURE TRACK SCENARIOS FOR
NADINE OR ITS REMNANTS.  THE FIRST IS THAT ENOUGH TROUGHING REMAINS
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE TO STEER IT GENERALLY EASTWARD.  THIS
SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF...UKMET...GFDL...AND FLORIDA
STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.  THE SECOND IS THAT DEEP-LAYER RIDGING
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND STEERS IT IN A GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS.  IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE ECMWF...GFS...
UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN THESE TWO
SCENARIOS... MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO TELL WHICH WILL COME TO PASS.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE EASTWARD SCENARIO FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A SLOW FORWARD MOTION DUE TO THE VERY
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 24 HOURS.

THIS MAY NOT BE THE LAST HURRAH FOR NADINE.  THE CYCLONE IS MOVING
TOWARD WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER
THE SYSTEM IN 48-72 HOURS.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST THE
SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN AND RE-ACQUIRE TROPICAL CYCLONE
CHARACTERISTICS BY THAT TIME.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT SHOW
A TRANSITION BACK TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT IT IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IF THE SYSTEM TURNS WESTWARD UNDER THE
RIDGE.  EVEN IF THIS TRANSITION DOES NOT OCCUR...THE MAJORITY OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MAINTAIN NADINE AS A VIGOROUS CYCLONE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THUS CHANGED
LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THIS WILL BY THE LAST ADVISORY ON NADINE BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 31.9N  26.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  22/1200Z 31.0N  26.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  23/0000Z 30.5N  25.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  23/1200Z 30.7N  24.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  24/0000Z 31.4N  24.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  25/0000Z 32.5N  24.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  26/0000Z 32.5N  23.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  27/0000Z 33.0N  20.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Esta 'guerra' modelistica es un clasico. La trayectoria del europeo se me antoja mas logica.

En cualquier caso, un riego importante parece asegurado