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Autor Tema: Huracán Kate 12L-94L, categoría 1. Atlántico Occidental, Noviembre 2015.  (Leído 1586 veces)

Desconectado Eyestorm_Eric

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Hora local de Caracas 11:20am

Se consolida la Tormenta Kate sobre el E de Las Bahamas



SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 75.3W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ENE OF CAT ISLAND
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.
« Última modificación: Noviembre 11, 2015, 15:06:17 pm por Gale »
Caracas, Venezuela

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Re:Tormenta tropical Kate 12L-INV94L Atlántico O
« Respuesta #1 en: Noviembre 09, 2015, 16:56:25 pm »
Pues hay nuevo ciclón tropical en el Atlántico, ayer por la noche no era ni calificada como depresión y ahora ya es TT.

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Re:Tormenta tropical Kate 12L-INV94L Atlántico O
« Respuesta #2 en: Noviembre 09, 2015, 16:57:11 pm »
Hemos abierto hilo casi a la vez  ;D  ;D

Desconectado Gale

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Re:Tormenta tropical Kate 12L-INV94L Atlántico O
« Respuesta #3 en: Noviembre 10, 2015, 17:44:45 pm »
Breve oportunidad para que KATE se convierta en huracán...

Citar
Tropical Storm KATE Forecast Discussion

Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive 

000
WTNT42 KNHC 101451
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015
1000 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating Kate this morning indicate that the storm has
continued to strengthen. The initial intensity is set to 60 kt based
on a peak SFMR wind of 61 kt from the Air Force aircraft. Given the
latest dropsonde data, the central pressure is estimated at 999 mb.
Kate's center continues to be embedded within a small CDO feature,
with aircraft data indicating some tilt to the circulation,
consistent with 15 to 20 kt of southwesterly shear analyzed over
the cyclone.

Despite increasing shear and cooling SSTs along the track, all of
the guidance continues to suggest that Kate will strengthen during
the next 24-36 hours, likely due in part to very cold temperatures
aloft. The NHC forecast follows this trend, and is above the
guidance in the short range given the initial intensity, and shows
Kate peaking at 70 kt in 24 to 36 hours. As the shear increases to
over 40 kt, Kate should lose tropical characteristics by 48 hours
and then weaken as it becomes fully extratropical by 72 hours. The
official forecast carries Kate as the dominant feature through 5
days as it interacts with another extratropical low over the north
Atlantic.

Kate continues to accelerate, with an initial motion estimate of
035/18. A further acceleration toward the east-northeast is
forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours as Kate becomes fully
embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. A slowing of the forward
speed is expected in 48 to 72 hours while Kate interacts with an
upper-level trough during extratropical transition, followed by a
faster northwestward motion over the north Atlantic at the end of
the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is largely an update
of the previous one. This forecast is close to the latest GFS track
through 48 hours and a little to the north of that model afterward.

The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 30.2N  74.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 32.5N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 35.3N  64.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 37.8N  56.6W   70 KT  80 MPH

 48H  12/1200Z 40.5N  51.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  13/1200Z 42.0N  47.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  14/1200Z 47.0N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  15/1200Z 55.5N  22.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brennan


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Re:Tormenta tropical Kate 12L-INV94L Atlántico O
« Respuesta #4 en: Noviembre 10, 2015, 20:35:11 pm »
Hora local de Caracas 3pm

Próxima a alcanzar la CAT1 de huracán



SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 74.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
Caracas, Venezuela

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Desconectado Gale

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Re:Huracán Kate 12L-94L, categoría 1. Atlántico Occidental, Noviembre 2015.
« Respuesta #5 en: Noviembre 11, 2015, 15:09:41 pm »
 :D1

Citar
000
WTNT42 KNHC 110906
TCDAT2

HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015
500 AM AST WED NOV 11 2015

The overall structure of Kate has again not changed much in
conventional satellite imagery since the previous advisory, with the
center in an area of strong convection.  However, a just received
AMSR microwave overpass shows that the convective banding has become
better defined near the center.  Based on this and satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB of 65 kt, Kate is upgraded to
a hurricane.

The initial motion is 055/35.  Kate is now embedded in the
westerlies between the subtropical ridge and a baroclinic low near
New England.  The tropical cyclone should continue a general
east-northeastward motion across the North Atlantic for the next
several days.  However, a decrease in forward speed and some
erratic motion are expected around 36-48 hours as Kate interacts
with, and eventually absorbs, the baroclinic low.  Despite the
complexity added by the merger, the track guidance is in excellent
agreement with only a small spread in direction and speed.  The new
forecast track is a little north of the previous track and lies
near the various consensus models.

A combination of increasing shear and decreasing sea surface
temperatures should prevent any additional intensification.  Kate
should begin extratropical transition in 12-24 hours and complete it
by 36 hours as the cyclone absorbs the baroclinic low.  The
resulting extratropical low is forecast to be absorbed by a front
over the north Atlantic in 4 to 5 days.

The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 36.0N  65.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 38.1N  59.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 40.8N  53.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 42.3N  50.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  13/0600Z 42.5N  47.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  14/0600Z 46.5N  36.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  15/0600Z 54.0N  22.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Sin embargo, su aspecto se está deteriorando con enorme rapidez... Cizalladura y aguas más frías...


Desconectado Eyestorm_Eric

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Re:Huracán Kate 12L-94L, categoría 1. Atlántico Occidental, Noviembre 2015.
« Respuesta #6 en: Noviembre 11, 2015, 17:41:31 pm »
Hora local de Caracas 12:15pm

Inicia su post-tropicalización:



11:00 AM AST Wed Nov 11
 Location: 36.8°N 60.5°W
 Moving: ENE at 45 mph
 Min pressure: 985 mb
 Max sustained: 75 mph
Caracas, Venezuela

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