000
WTNT45 KNHC 150834
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 AM AST SAT OCT 15 2016

The cloud pattern has not changed much since the last advisory.
Patches of deep convection keep reforming near and to the north of
the center. The circulation appears to be elongated, but it is still
well defined. Initial intensity is kept at 60 kt.

As mentioned by my predecessor, the future structure of Nicole is
difficult to forecast. Given the strong shear and cold SSTs, one
should tend to foreast weakening or extratropical transition.
However, both the GFS and the ECMWF simulated infrared imagery
continue to forecast the development of an eye feature in a day or
so. Given these model solutions, the NHC forecast keeps Nicole with
tropical characteristics during the next 3 days and calls for the
cyclone to become post-tropical thereafter.

After an increased in forward speed last evening, Nicole has slowed
down a little, and is now moving toward the east-northeast at about
15 kt. The cyclone is already embedded within a mid-latitude trough
and will continue to move with the trough on the same general track
with a decrease in forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days. After
that time, another trough will approach Nicole and will probably
kick the cyclone toward the north-northeast. The NHC forecast is in
the middle of the guidance envelope and is not different from the
previous one.

Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the
forecast wind radii.

Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east
coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.  By early
next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole
will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 38.1N  51.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 38.7N  50.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 38.8N  48.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 39.0N  47.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 39.5N  46.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 44.0N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 54.5N  36.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  20/0600Z 62.5N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

000
WTNT45 KNHC 151459
TCDAT5

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 15 2016

Nicole has intensified since the last advisory, likely due to
baroclinic influences from a nearby upper-level trough.
Just-received ASCAT-B data shows 70-75 kt winds to the southwest of
the center, and a drifting buoy south of the center reported a
pressure 966.6 mb at 1000 UTC, suggesting a falling
central pressure.  Based on these data, the intensity is increased
to 75 kt.  It should be noted that the cloud pattern has some
characteristics of a subtropical cyclone due to the cyclone's
interaction with the upper-level trough.

The GFS and the ECMWF continue to forecast organized central
convection for the next 48 hours or so, indicating that Nicole is
likely to maintain tropical cyclone characteristics despite cooler
air entraining into the circulation. After that time, the cyclone
should move over sea surface temperatures of 16 deg C or less that
should cause the central convection to dissipate. Based on this, the
intensity forecast calls for Nicole to become post-tropical by 72
hours and then fully extratropical by 96 hours. The new intensity
forecast is adjusted upward for the first 12 hours based on the
current intensity, and after that it is an update of the previous
forecast.  Overall, the forecast lies near the upper end of the
intensity guidance.

Nicole appears to be slowing its forward motion, and the motion
estimate is now 075/11.  A slow easterly motion is expected during
the next 36 hours or so while the cyclone is an area of weaker flow
in the mid-latitude westerlies.  After that time, a large
mid-latitude trough moving into eastern Canada should steer the
cyclone north-northeastward with an increase in forward speed.  The
new forecast track is again similar to the previous track and lies
near the various consensus models.

Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the
forecast wind radii.

Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east
coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.  By early
next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole
will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 39.0N  50.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 39.3N  48.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 39.4N  47.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 39.8N  45.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 41.1N  44.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 47.5N  39.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  19/1200Z 56.5N  35.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  20/1200Z 64.5N  32.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven