Adjunto el último boletín disponible del Joint Typhoon Warning Center, de las 03 UTC de hoy:
WDPN32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE) IS TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AND HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED TO 75 KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD CURRENTLY SUPPORT INTENSITIES FROM 75 TO 90
KNOTS. THIS FORECAST IS PRIMARILY BASED ON THE PGTW AND RJTD
ESTIMATES. MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS SHOWN A WELL
DEFINED EYE HAS DEVELOPED, AND IS BEGINNING TO BE APPARENT IN
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AS WELL. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS
REMAINED WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH NORTH OF TY 23W THAT HAS STARTED TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST. STRONG ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN JAPAN IN THE UPPER
LEVEL HAS STARTED TO REPLACE THE TROUGH AS THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING ZONAL
FLOW HAS SUPPORTED THE RECENT INTENSITY CHANGE OBSERVED. RADIAL
OUTFLOW, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE ANTI-CYCLONE
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF TY 23W, HAS MAINTAINED AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 23W WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS LUZON
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WELL ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF MIRINAE. OUTFLOW
FROM THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ZONAL FLOW WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT CONTINUED RADIAL OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. THE INTENSIFICATION WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST, ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
C. BEYOND TAU 72 MIRINAE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITH
LUZON, WEAKEN AND SLOW SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION, THEN
CROSS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AROUND TAU 96. AS THE SYSTEM RE-
CONSOLIDATES THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH TAU
120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FOLLOWING
FORECAST, EXCEPT WITH THE SPEED OF ADVANCE OVER LUZON. MODELS
SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO SLOW-DOWN AS TY 23W CROSSES OVER LUZON. THE
FORECAST INCORPORATES A DECREASE IN TRACK SPEED FROM TAU 72 THROUGH
120 BASED ON LAND INTERACTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.//
NNNN
Se comenta que el ciclón se ha intensificado rápidamente hasta los 75 KT... Pero lo cierto es que, en la última imagen del visible, se le ve más deteriorado, sin poder verse ningún ojo o señal incipiente de él, lo que
me sugiere un debilitamiento del tifón. La última imagen, de las 6:30 UTC, da consistencia a esta afirmación, ya que la masa convectiva sobre el centro de circulación en niveles bajos ha perdido mucha simetría. Es posible que haya bajado su intensidad al umbral de tifón de los 65 KT.
Realmente, según el mapa de cizalladura del CIMMS, las condiciones sobre el ciclón no son excesivamente favorables, aunque tampoco hostiles para provocar un debilitamiento: ahora la cizalladura se encuentra en unos 15 KT, un poco más alta que ayer, y más lejos del anticiclón en altura, aunque tiene un flujo divergente en niveles altos de la atmósfera.
Tiene 72 horas para llegar a la isla de Luzón, si no hay cambios, y mi apuesta sobre MIRINAE es que no se va a intensificar tanto como estaba previsto, visto su comportamiento con las condiciones actuales.