000
WTNT33 KNHC 260607
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
200 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

...RINA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 85.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD
* THE HONDURAN BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 17.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST.  RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3
MPH...6 KM/H.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  RINA IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  RINA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS
969 MB...28.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

000
WTNT43 KNHC 270242
TCDAT3

HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED
OFF TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT DISCERNIBLE IN IR IMAGES...IT
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. IN
FACT...THE EYE FEATURE IS NOW QUITE DISTINCT IN VERY RECENT SSMIS
DATA. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WHICH
JUST TRAVERSED THE HURRICANE AND OBSERVED A CIRCULAR EYE OF 15 N MI
IN DIAMETER. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A PEAK WIND OF 82 KNOTS MEASURED BY
THE SFMR...MOST OF THE WIND REPORTS YIELD AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
75 KNOTS. MORE RECENT DATA SUGGEST THAT RITA COULD BE A LITTLE BIT
STRONGER. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN
RINA SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AS RINA
APPROACHES THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME VERY HOSTILE...AND A FASTER WEAKENING SHOULD
OCCUR...PROBABLY MORE THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

RINA HAS ALREADY REACHED THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT IN MOVING RINA SLOWLY NORTHWARD
VERY NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN DURING THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE MODEL TREND IS TO KEEP RINA OR WHATEVER
IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE MEANDERING BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND YUCATAN.
THERE ARE NO LONGER ANY RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT ACCELERATE
THE CYCLONE EASTWARD. LITTLE BY LITTLE...MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONVERGING ON THE SOLUTION GIVEN A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO BY THE
ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWING A WEAKENING RINA MEANDERING NEAR
YUCATAN. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE
MODEL TREND...I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND KEEP RINA BASICALLY
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. BY THEN...THE CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT LOW.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 18.5N  86.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 19.2N  86.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 20.4N  87.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 21.5N  87.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 22.0N  86.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 22.5N  85.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  31/0000Z 22.0N  84.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  01/0000Z 22.0N  84.0W   25 KT  30 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT33 KNHC 280546
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
100 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

...CENTER OF RINA PASSING JUST WEST OF CANCUN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 87.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM W OF CANCUN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST AND NORTH COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
ALLEN TO SAN FELIPE

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST. RINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. RINA SHOULD THEN
BEGIN A SOUTHWARD DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND REMAIN THERE FOR A FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA OVER WATER TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND RINA
SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING IN COZUMEL
AND ALONG PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN.  THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH
TODAY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST....
PRIMARILY ON COZUMEL AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN. THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI