Buenas tardes noches a todos aqui os dejo la prevision a fecha 16 de Noviembre de cara al Invierno 2014/2015
Mañana actualizan dia 23, luego el dia 30 de Noviembre y la definitiva el dia 1 de Diciembre.
Winter 2014-15 Forecast Updates here
Seventh Winter 2014-15 Update (16/11/14)This is the seventh and penultimate Winter 2014-15 forecast update video for the United Kingdom and Europe. Created on 16th November 2014 the video get's together various elements that will eventually make up the GavsWeatherVids Winter 2014-2015 Forecast at the end of November to see how these elements are progressing.
Following on from last week's update the video looks once again at the QBO (Quasi-Biennial-Oscillation) which is heading into it's easterly phase (meaning zonal westerlies are reduced across the northern hemisphere) and this time combines it with the recently released OPI (October pattern index) number - Which came out at a very negative -2.12.
Using analogues from years (1976, 1984, 1986, 2009 and 2012) with OPI's under -1 and putting it together with the easterly QBO we have are able to determine that a colder than average winter is expected, with all analogue years pointing coming out with a colder than average January. December show's the most variability. Between colder than average, average or milder than average outcomes, though even here a colder than month is still just favoured.
Elsewhere the weak El Nino continues to progress very slowly. The SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) has become far less negative in recent day's compared to the sixth update. Nevertheless, very weak, central based El Nino conditions are still expected for winter 2014/15 - This can favour the chance of a colder than winter in both the United States of America and Europe.
Solar activity continues to gradually fall away from the solar maximum which occurred last winter. We are still get regular spikes in sunspots though. One of those occurred in September, but October saw a significant reduction in sunspot numbers, taking back to where we was through most of 2012 and early 2013.
The weaker sunspot activity is, the greater the chance of Arctic blocking occurring with the jet stream moving south and becoming meridional. However, as we saw in September, further spikes in activity are likely to occur, not just during the coming winter, but probably during the next year or two. At the same time the overall trend will be downwards into the solar minimum of Solar Cycle 24. And we must always remember that SC24 is the weakest recorded solar cycle for a Century which means even when we get spikes in activity they should have far less impact overall, compared to many solar cycles in the 20th Century.
The eighth and final Winter 2014/15 forecast will be released at GavsWeatherVids on Sunday- Sunday 23rd November. This will be followed by the final seasonal model round-up video on Sunday 30th November. The final and official Winter 2014/15 forecast will then be released at GavsWeatherVids.com on the evening of Monday 1st December.
Meanwhile, if you would like to leave a message or comment about this or any of the other updates on this page you can use the comment box at the bottom of this page.
Enlace donde viene la informacion:
http://www.gavsweathervids.com/nao14-15.php#hereSaludos de Rafa
Tema: Previsiones meteorológicas estacionales Otoño - Invierno 2014 (Leído 4050 veces)