Se formó ayer a partir de una zona de baja presión muy convectiva. Rumbo Japón. Quizás más intenso de lo que indica JTWC, ya que el microondas dibuja un eyewall parcialmente abierto al SW...

WDPN32 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (ETAU) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (ETAU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM
SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS LIMITED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING FAIRLY TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE MSI AS WELL AS A 080526Z SSMI IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS AS THE OVERALL CONVECTION
OF THE SYSTEM HAS DECAYED SLIGHTLY OVER THEN PAST 6 HOURS AND IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
VERY HIGH VWS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH JUST NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TS 18W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE
FAR NORTHEAST AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 18W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AS WELL AS BEING ENVELOPED INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE TOUGH. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTH-CENTRAL HONSHU, GOOD
OHC AND SSTS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BY TAU 12.
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DECAY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, SPECIFICALLY
WITH THE PEAKS OF THE DAIKŌ MOUNTAIN RANGE PAST TAU 12. AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS JUST NORTH OF KYOTO BY TAU 24, EXPECT CONTINUED
DISSIPATION AS VWS INCREASES AND THE LOW OHC VALUES OF THE SEA OF
JAPAN. ADDITIONALLY, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
ERRATIC AS THE STR RETREATS DUE TO TY 03C AND THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL HAVE PASSED THOUGH THE SYSTEM. TS 18W WILL BE COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE HAS SPREAD IN THE PAST 6
HOURS, SPECIFICALLY WITH MOVEMENT OF THE WEAKENED SYSTEM BEYOND TAU
24. AS SUCH, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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